Football prediction guide
How to Read Football Prediction Probabilities
A practical guide to interpreting home, draw and away percentages without treating a forecast as a guarantee.
Probability is not certainty
A 55% home-win estimate does not mean the home team will definitely win. It means the model expects that outcome in roughly 55 of 100 comparable situations.
The remaining probability still matters. If draw is 25% and away is 20%, there is a combined 45% chance that the home team does not win.
Why the three numbers must add up
GraveyardCheck presents 1X2 probabilities: home win, draw and away win. Together they should total approximately 100%, allowing for rounding.
Compare the distribution, not only the largest number. A 36–32–32 match is far less decisive than a 68–19–13 match.
Use confidence as context
Confidence reflects how clearly the model separates the outcomes. It is not a promise of accuracy or profit. Team news, late injuries and lineup changes can alter the picture.
Treat every prediction as one piece of information and never stake money you cannot afford to lose.